Interstate conflicts, military interventions, terrorism and civil war create conditions for affected populations to engage in asylum-seeking migration. In some areas these situations, or the risk thereof, are increasing.
A (optimist)
Transparency, participation, social cohesion lead to fewer conflicts on a national and international level
- More democratic and less corrupt political movements gain the upper hand because of increased transparency
- Driving forces of armed conflicts (e.g. resource scarcity) are less relevant because of new technology
- Education and access to information increase understanding
- International peace organisations help reduce armed conflicts
- Conflicting interests resolved within international and regional fora
B1 (pessimist)
Changes in the world order lead to large scale international war
- Superpower expansionism meets armed resistance, incites international conflict, or
- Global superpowers are drawn into an extraterritorial war (like Vietnam), which leads to large-scale refugee flows
B2 (pessimist)
Unlimited availability of weapons and resource scarcity culminate in several limited armed conflicts
- Armed conflicts between communities become more frequent due to decreasing resources
- Online technology supports the recruitment of people for armed conflicts
- More weapons are available, with higher destructive power
- Using 3D printers, everyone can download weapons and political disagreements quickly reach the brink of civil war
C1 (mediator)
Successful search for peaceful solutions (e.g. through education and mediation) on an international level
- Information and education promoting better life opportunities are able to convince people in some geographical areas to abandon armed conflicts
- International community accepts the responsibility of conflicts due to vestiges of colonial history and international mediation is successful in finding solutions in some areas
- International community establishes surveillance mechanisms over conflict-prone countries (oil producers)
C2 (mediator)
Freeze - panem et circenses on the national level and ‘cold war’ on an international level lead to a stable situation
- “Bread and games” neutralises political attention and will of populations , even autocratic regimes manage to establish a stable situation
- A new cold war be-tween the global superpowers makes both bent on the status quo, so that they put pressure on many countries to avoid regime change
D (innovator)
Civic technologies reinvent national level democracy and increase stability
- Technology innovations contribute to foster a democratisation process and institutional transformations
- International community puts a strict control over supply of weapons/networks that are engaged in that
- Transparency reduces corruption to a large extent
- Participation reaches a new level (civic technology)