The scenario development process began with the identification of a number of factors that were both external to the EU+ countries and driving change in international protection. Based on them, the process of scenario development followed during three workshops with EUAA staff, representatives of national asylum authorities and partner EU institutions. At the end of a multi-workshop scenario development process, four unique and viable future scenarios were refined in preparation for the scenario analysis process. Each of these scenarios centres around three of the most impactful and uncertain factors and details how developments among those key factors infer coinciding and coherent developments in the other factors.
Humming Bees on the Global Meadows
By 2032, the number and intensity of armed conflicts have decreased. Economic development in countries of origin and transit countries can be observed. Human rights, and minority rights in particular, are increasingly recognised globally. Increasing environmental awareness and the use of technology to protect people from the effects of natural disasters are accompanied by successful court cases regarding the recognition of climate change-induced displacement. Asylum application processes are digitalised to a large extent and make use of the improved data provision of digital networks and platforms.
Circling Sharks and Orcas
By 2032, a new cold war between the global superpowers makes them determined to maintain the status quo. The threat of a large-scale armed conflict is omnipresent and dominates the action. The global superpowers put pressure on countries to avoid regime change and provide support for regional solutions mitigating the climate change effects. Many authoritarian governments use new technologies for surveillance purposes and to pacify their populations. The asylum application processes have become largely automatised and remote application processes are mainly initiated in transit countries since territorialisation is hardened.
Sleeping Leopard in a Paper Cage
By 2032, global power centres have unofficially divided the world into spheres of influence and increasingly acknowledge the special importance of transit countries for maintaining boundaries. Economic development in transit countries is therefore supported by major power blocs with a focus on developing job opportunities and the living conditions of migrants in these countries. The relationship between people, their data and social institutions has shifted with the aim to give individuals control over their personal data. This development enhances the possibilities of data use in remote asylum application processing, but flawed algorithms and systemic exploits remain problematic. The increasing threat to livelihoods due to climate change remains unresolved.
Caimans and Piranhas in a Drying Pond
By 2032, numerous disruptions to global agriculture and food supply systems caused by the effects of climate change have led to conflicts and spiralling civil unrest in the global South. Territorial boundaries have become hardened with infrastructure build-outs. There is a discrepancy between the legal frameworks of international protection and actual practices applied at the state borders. The failed attempt to automate asylum application processes goes back to unreliable databases and leads to a more restrictive interpretation of international protection in many countries. Asylum seekers are negatively affected by unregulated social media.