Food & Water Insecurity
The impacts of prolonged shortage in water supply (precipitation, surface water and ground water) lead to heightened social pressure which further transforms into political oppression. Similar dynamics can be observed with scarcity of other resources.
A (Optimist)
Increasingly resilient agriculture systems with more equitable distribution of food and water
- Root causes are addressed in a sustainable way and international awareness is increased
- Climate change creates more arable land and food is redistributed more easily and at the same time droughts do not worsen as initially envisaged, when and where they do, these are fully mitigated by international aid and food programmes
- Vertical agriculture in glass houses raises agricultural productivity enormously, decoupling food production from weather conditions and central distribution requirements
- People are able to migrate to more favourable locations
B (Pessimist)
Widespread food and water shortages increase conflicts & related migration
- Food production deteriorates around the world: fertilizer prices skyrocket, large-scale production becomes impossible in poorer countries
- Increased droughts, increase in food scarcity and hunger
- Further intensification of droughts caused by unwillingness of key global players to reduce climate emissions and work towards sustainable economic development
- Fossil fuels production decrease, while renewables are too expensive with respect to demand, leading to conflict over scarce energy resources
- Desertification spreads rapidly around the globe and heat waves create widespread famine
C1 (Mediator)
Improved regional infrastructure and fair-trade programs limit local displacement
- Expanded awareness regarding environmental issues and the green movement, contributes to a shift towards innovative approaches to irrigation and distribution of food, including improvement of regional structures
- Certain areas of the world are nevertheless increasingly affected by droughts, but only to the extent that local displacements are generated thanks to international aid
- Fair-trade campaigns and new global regulatory framework pay off and help level the playing field for small agro-businesses in developing countries
- New technologies are developed to address localised environmental needs (i.e. degradation of drylands)
C2 (Mediator)
Adoption of new nutrition sources and global reduction of food waste
- Droughts are more frequent, wide-spread and longer lasting, adversely affecting crop yields and livelihood thus leading to in-creased outflows
- Insects become a regular part of human food intake, especially those that thrive in dry areas
- New international collaboration on sustainable food production and distribution is formed facilitating a decrease in food waste and fairer prices, although the ultimate goal of balanced production and consumption is still far from sight
- Genetically modified food technology and vertical aquaponics and saline farms enable concentrated, regionally adapted agriculture (e.g. lab grown meat, insect proteins etc.) are widespread, reducing pressure on the environment
D (Innovator)
Bioengineering and material sciences create food and energy abundance
- Genetically modified organisms can grow in deserts
- Future humans will need less nutrition → astronaut food for all
- New hydrophilic pathogens emerge that survive best in dry conditions
- New approaches to food distribution are implemented at a global level with active participation by most countries. This reduces food waste in the “global north” and food insecurity in many parts of the “global south”
- New energy sources reduce reliance on oil/gas and enable inexpensive domestic electricity production
- Humans learn to control the weather, especially rainfall