Scenario Narrative

Disruptions to food supply systems triggered by extreme weather events

The effects of climate change and environmental deterioration on human societies have been rapidly getting worse. In addition to sea-level rise and other macro-environmental impacts, more localised effects – in particular, extreme weather events (heatwaves, droughts, floods) as well as shifts in rainfall locations – have caused numerous disruptions to global agriculture and food supply systems. Declining or collapsing agricultural regions have seen a notable rise in regime evictions and state abuse of expropriation practices. While in some cases food and water scarcity could be mitigated by the adoption of new nutrition sources and reduction of food waste, in most cases the situation leads to forced displacement and loss of livelihood.

Increasing number of localised conflicts and global wealth inequalities

A global eruption of localised conflicts and spiralling civil unrest is observed, with national forces often fighting urban battles against armed and loosely organised protestors. In addition to the disruptions to food and water systems, the proliferation of inexpensive, 3D-printed firearms have quickly transformed popular unrest into deadly conflicts. These conditions have, in some territories, rapidly led to the targeted oppression of minority groups and marginalised segments of society. While wealthier nations have not escaped these events, they are able to deploy more resources to peaceably settle such situations. However, poorer and deeply indebted nations are unable to provide timely and adequate relief. Growing global wealth inequalities have made wealthy nations and regions all the more desirable in the eyes of the displaced.

Discrepancy between legal frameworks of international protection and practices

The worldwide number of asylum seekers continues to rise, but previous disagreements between major world economic powers have become untenable geopolitical fractures given the increases in systemic disruption and violence. Despite intensified pressures, attempts at global migration reform have failed to find agreement. There is a growing divergence between existing agreements and the actual practices applied by states’ border security forces, further eroding trust in legal frameworks. In many cases, countries instrumentalise migrants to simultaneously alleviate internal pressures and maintain current borders and powers. Territorial boundaries have become hardened with infrastructure build-outs (walls and digital monitoring systems), public budgets for enforcement (border patrols, detention centres and deportation systems) are increased and vigilant “border security” is also on the rise. Widespread discrimination of migrants within local communities – often manifesting as resource hoarding or outright violence – is neither condoned nor condemned in both transit and destination countries.

Failed attempt to automate asylum procedures

Initially, some wealthy nations attempted to find technological solutions to the influx of mixed migration. Attempts were made to create databases using blockchain technologies, so as to digitalise and automate procedures to differentiate between asylum seekers, economic migrants and other groups massing at borders. However, without a unified agreement on which technologies to use and how to securely deploy these systems, these technologies were difficult to navigate for all users (both migrants and caseworkers), incompatible with one another and proved susceptible to different forms of digital attack and corruption. This only increased frustrations and led many countries to become more restrictive in their interpretation of international protection, so as to drastically limit the number of people being granted asylum. Further increasing the difficulties faced by migrants of all kinds, a more fragmented Internet became a less reliable source of legitimate information.

In many territories, the broader Internet is severely restricted, making information outside state-sanctioned portals – including official documents on human rights and legal pathways – nearly impossible to access. These issues are only compounded by the complete deregulation and fast pace of social media that has occurred in other regions – redoubling the amount of disinformation and exploitation of desperate asylum seekers on the one hand and negatively impacting public perception in receiving countries on the other hand.

Personas

Disclaimer: The images used for the scenario personas are not real people.

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Adana

Adana is a 25-year-old Nigerian who has been a vocal leader for human rights activism both in her local community and online. Once she began receiving threats on social media for her work against evictions and exploitative human trafficking, she fled and is currently living in Morocco. She has access to funds and knowledge thanks to her digital literacy skills developed in attaining her university degree in communications. She has been a primary school teacher as well as a successful blogger and non-governmental organisation collaborator, but in Morocco, she has been mainly forced into irregular domestic work and translation. She has an extensive portfolio of digital evidence proving the threats she has received and she has confidence that her persecution for being a defender of human rights will work in her favour. For identification, she has biometric information, access to her digital wallets, her university degree and her passport. She has the added responsibility of guiding her younger siblings through the process and the fear of being returned by Moroccan authorities, but she believes that safety and security for herself and her family are close. Just across the waters, in Spain, she can access her network of European allies and assistants and start a new life.

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Mayara

Mayara is a 22-year-old human-rights activist from Brazil, where she has been supporting indigenous peoples in the Amazon fight to protect their ancestral lands. She has been arrested and jailed, following her post on social media criticising the government's response to climate change and deforestation. As both an activist and a member of the LGBTQ community, she faces persecution at home in Brazil, but she is currently in Portugal on a temporary visa. Her trip was financed by her university friends and she has no personal funds, having lived mostly from her academic scholarship which was cut off after her arrest. She has her passport and some access to digital copies of her university records to help prove her identity, though her most important links are to her social media accounts wherein she also stores the evidence of death threats received by herself and her family. Unfortunately, some of her blog posts have begun disappearing and while she has digital copies of many pieces of evidence, online versions are becoming scarce. She is afraid that she will be sent back from Portugal and that her family and friends in Brazil will be persecuted for her actions. She knows that she has a right to seek asylum, but she has heard many stories of long waiting times and rejected applications.

Scenario Challenges

Geo-Political Challenges

In this scenario, armed conflicts are on the rise in number, size and intensity – creating additional refugees and limits the possibilities of international actors and cooperation between actors situated in conflicting regions.. Hardened territorialisation has made international travel increasingly difficult and established additional obstacles for asylum seekers.
The number of people in need of international protection is extremely high in this scenario, but the limited resourced of these people and the hardened territorialisation might limit the number of applications in Europe. This could create a social dilemma for EU and other developed countries: to enlarge resettlement quotas or remain ignorant.
Socio-political disruptions from a variety of causes have undermined democratic systems and led to more authoritarian governance regimes. These regimes tend to persecute their opposition and create large numbers of people in need of international protection.
States have turned more inward and are less inclined to work toward finding mutually beneficial solutions to migration, trade, etc. This increase in isolationism further challenges the status of international protection as governing institutions like the United Nations become less relevant.
Migrants, asylum seekers and refugees have become increasingly instrumentalised by various political actors.

Digitalisation and Data Challenges

In this scenario, cyberattacks on digital infrastructure have rendered many services and databases suspect or completely unusable. Given international protection status hinges on the data that is presented by applicants, the degradation of digital technologies presents the challenge of having limited access to files, and longer processing times (even as the number of applicants is on the rise).
Increasingly widespread digital surveillance leads to a significant rise in targeted persecution, but also makes applying for international protection more dangerous and difficult. This impacts minority groups, political activists and other individuals and groups which oppose ruling regimes.
Automated systems for decision support and data analysis cannot be used due to the prevalence of suspicious or corrupted data sources due to elevated intensity of cyber warfare tactics.
Some digital platforms are geospatially restricted, meaning that access to data, photos, and social networks may not be transferable or useable outside of specific locations. This also creates challenges for asylum applicants and authorities.
Organisations are faced with the challenge of building, maintaining and securing databases and digital tools that are decoupled from the wider Internet and are encrypted to safeguard data.

Climate Change Challenges

Long-term shifts in rainfall (droughts and floods) have a major impact on food and water supply, which drives displacement of large numbers of people. At first the displacement may be internal but increasing pressure on resources in new settlements quickly leads to persecution and violence, which urges new movements and increases the number of asylum seekers.
Extreme weather events might also displace large populations (initially internally), but in this scenario these events become more regular and foreclose on the possibility of return for an increasing number of people. These internal migrants then become part of the cycle described above and eventually become international protection applicants.
In this scenario, multiple crises are causing high numbers of asylum seekers making it difficult to distinguish between the reasons/motivations driving migration. As little reliable data are available, assessing claims for international protection becomes increasingly difficult.

Caimans and Piranhas in a Drying Pond